AI Supercycle Survives Iran War as Helium Shift Reshapes NVIDIA Supply Chain

The AI supercycle endures despite Iran War disruptions to helium supply from Qatar’s Ras Laffan (30-38% of global output), where spot prices doubled after early March strikes, squeezing semiconductor production for NVIDIA Corp and peers. Initial warnings highlighted margin risks and Taiwan's potential 0.7% industrial output drop per Oxford Economics if constraints persist six months, amid already tight HBM sold out through 2026. Latest analysis predicts non-discretionary hyperscaler demand will continue build-outs, shifting benefits to U.S. foundries and gas firms, with iShares Semiconductor ETF up 30% since March 30 and TSMC +5.08% to $402.