Australia’s growth pulse cools, Leading Index dips below trend

Australia’s Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slipped to -0.13% in March (from +0.05% in February), falling below trend for the first time since August and signalling a meaningful loss of economic momentum. The six‑month annualised measure has moved off an October peak of +0.31% to around -0.15% today, a cumulative slowdown of about 0.44 percentage points. The report flags higher interest rates and a global energy shock as key headwinds, implying a softer growth profile through the rest of 2026. Markets may interpret the data as a modest negative for Australia‑sensitive assets and for the RBA’s policy outlook, increasing the risk that the economy slows further while complicating the central bank’s inflation/interest‑rate trade‑off.