ECB's Lane warns Iran war inflation could persist long after conflict ends

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned on 27 May 2026 at the Bank of Japan-IMES conference that inflationary effects from the Iran conflict could persist long after any ceasefire due to second‑round effects, supply‑chain repositioning and non‑linear price dynamics. His message implies a higher hurdle for ECB rate cuts and sustained upside pressure on energy and inflation-sensitive assets. Markets should price a longer‑lasting inflation risk premium, which is likely to support commodities and safe-haven assets (including gold) and keep policy-sensitive rates and inflation expectations elevated until disinflation is clearly entrenched.