Goldman sees downside risks to its 2026 gold price target

Goldman Sachs kept its end-2026 gold price forecast at $5,400/oz but warned near-term risks are skewed to the downside as gold could face further liquidation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions (Hormuz) and corrections in bond and equity markets. The bank still views central-bank demand as the main structural support, forecasting average monthly purchases of 60 tonnes through 2026 despite a sharp nowcast drop to 2 tonnes in February. A Goldman survey found ~70% of central banks expect reserves to rise and expect gold above $5,000 in a year. Goldman’s base case assumes no additional private-sector liquidation and factors in 50bp of Fed cuts as a potential tailwind; however, medium-term upside could accelerate if geopolitical events boost diversification into gold.