Iran war to accelerate China's shift to electric trucks from diesel

Reuters reports that the Iran war-driven 27% jump in Chinese retail diesel prices has accelerated electrification of China’s heavy truck fleet, boosting EV heavy truck sales and reducing diesel demand forecasts. New-energy heavy truck sales rose 45% year-on-year to about 44,000 units and now represent over a quarter of the segment; April sales are expected to grow ~30%. Consultancies GL Consulting and Rystad Energy have pushed forward expected diesel declines (GL: -4.3% vs prior -4.1%; Rystad: -5% vs prior -4%, ~40,000 barrels/day). Higher operating-cost savings, trade-in subsidies and expanding charging infrastructure are improving EV truck economics and spurring exports to Europe, likely accelerating a structural decline in China’s diesel consumption and affecting global oil demand dynamics.