JPMorgan Warns Markets Underprice Hormuz Risk as $150 Oil Countdown Resumes

Oil markets remain near $90 per barrel amid a prolonged U.S.-Iran stalemate and persistent Strait of Hormuz blockade. Early optimism from diplomatic signals in May gave way to renewed warnings as emergency stockpiles near exhaustion after a cumulative 1 billion barrel draw. ExxonMobil and Chevron flagged inventories hitting critically low levels within weeks, with Brent potentially spiking to $150–$160. Rystad Energy raised its bull-case target to $180 by August on re-escalation, while JPMorgan’s June 11 note highlighted that current prices fail to reflect ongoing supply constraints and the risk of a sharp repricing to $120–$150 if flows stay disrupted.