Morgan Stanley Calls China SpaceX’s Top Long-Term Threat After Booster Recovery

Morgan Stanley on July 13 identified China as SpaceX’s biggest long-term competitive threat following CASC’s successful recovery of the Long March 10B first stage on July 10. The Chinese booster was captured by a barge-mounted net six minutes after liftoff, marking China’s first controlled orbital-class recovery and matching Falcon 9’s 16-metric-ton payload capacity to low Earth orbit. While SpaceX still leads in launch cadence and reflight experience, analysts note China’s accelerating ecosystem—including the Guowang and Qianfan constellations—could pressure future launch economics and satellite connectivity markets.