Oil Crisis Risks Full Catastrophe in Month as Stocks Drain to Critical Levels

Analysts warn the Strait of Hormuz closure from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war could trigger a full-blown oil catastrophe within a month, with global inventories hitting operational stress by early June despite IEA's 400 million barrel release and 5.5 million bpd demand destruction in May. Supply shocks have blocked 20% of exported jet fuel and one-fifth of crude flows, causing 14.5 million bpd curtailments and draws of 500 million-1 billion barrels, slashing stocks below 80 days from 101 pre-crisis. Oil futures exceed $100/bbl, U.S. gasoline averages $4.54/gallon, European jet fuel surges 50%, and U.S. drillers offer minimal relief under 250,000 bpd.