Quantum computer cracks sample BTC encryption 512 times bigger

Project Eleven demonstrated a quantum computer cracking a 15-bit elliptic-curve key—512 times larger than prior public attempts—illustrating a tangible trajectory toward quantum threats to Bitcoin’s secp256k1 signatures. While current quantum hardware is far from breaking real 256-bit keys, Google researchers warn a device with ~500,000 physical qubits could make such attacks feasible. Coinbase’s advisory body estimates ~6.9 million BTC sit in addresses with exposed public keys (roughly $530 billion at ~$77,500/BTC), highlighting concentrated vulnerability that could create long-term security and market risks. NIST’s 2024 post-quantum standards and ongoing work on quantum-resistant signatures reduce immediate panic, but governance, protocol upgrades and migrating dormant or reused addresses remain major practical challenges. Market impact: no imminent sell-off implied, but heightened long-term risk could influence custody practices, developer priorities, and investor risk premia for crypto assets until migration paths and upgrades are widely adopted.