RBNZ September Hike Bets Rise After Retail Sales Beat and Trade Surplus

Markets now price at least one RBNZ rate hike by end-September after a string of stronger New Zealand data. Early weakness in services (PSI at 48.9) and rising producer prices gave way to a NZD 1.92 billion April trade surplus and Q1 retail sales jumping 0.9% q/q, beating forecasts. Economists have lifted their end-2026 OCR median forecast to 2.75%, supporting NZDUSD and tightening carry trades ahead of the central bank’s next meetings.