SpaceX Is Down 19% From Its IPO Price. Tesla's History Suggests This May Happen Next

The article argues that SpaceX, now trading about 19% below its IPO price, may follow a path similar to Tesla’s early post-IPO volatility. It notes that Tesla fell about 18% shortly after going public in 2010 before rebounding to finish its first year up 18%. The comparison hinges on SpaceX’s long-term growth catalysts: Starship, a fully reusable next-gen rocket, and Starlink expansion, both of which could lower launch costs, improve margins, and accelerate satellite deployment. However, the piece is cautious: SpaceX is not consistently profitable, revenue growth may not justify its $1.4 trillion valuation, and AI-related investments could pressure the bottom line further. The author concludes that while a rebound is possible if SpaceX makes meaningful Starship progress, the stock may keep falling over the next year due to valuation and competition risks.