Strategy now publishes the Bitcoin return threshold below which it may have to restructure

Strategy published a new internal stress metric, BTC Floor ARR, showing Bitcoin could fall at a constant annualized rate of 11.34% over the company’s 5.79-year weighted credit duration before modeled coverage of net debt and preferred claims drops below 1.0x. The disclosure does not represent a covenant breach, liquidation trigger, or immediate restructuring event, but it highlights the leverage embedded in Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy capital structure. The framework uses about $18.993 billion in combined net debt and preferred claims, against 843,775 BTC worth about $53.807 billion at a captured Bitcoin price of $63,769. The company also reported a BTC Hurdle ARR of 10.79%, framing a band where Bitcoin can still preserve coverage but not necessarily outperform financing costs. Market-wise, the article underscores how Bitcoin price weakness could pressure corporate treasury models and raise scrutiny of balance-sheet risk at Strategy.