The Iran war may be over, inflation is definitely not

Markets reacted euphorically to reports of a US‑Iran two‑week ceasefire, sending global stocks higher and risk assets firmer. Oil (WTI) fell from about $106 to $85 on the headlines, but remains roughly 35% above pre‑war levels (around $65). The article warns the truce is fragile, supply disruptions (Qatar LNG down ~17%) are likely to persist, and energy shortages will keep inflation elevated. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% in March and US CPI is forecast at 3.3% YoY for March (from 2.4% in February). With inflation broadening, central banks — already leaning hawkish (RBA has hiked) — may delay or reverse rate cuts, implying tighter policy and continued market vulnerability despite near‑term risk‑on moves.