'Up To 15,800'—Polymarket Warning Meta AI Layoffs Target $135B Capex

Polymarket bettors pushed the “Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?” market to 85% YES after Meta disclosed plans to deploy employee workflow-tracking software and announced ~8,000 job cuts (roughly 10%), with a May 20 first-wave date. Despite higher layoff odds and trackers projecting up to 15,800 Meta cuts by year-end, prediction markets and some analysts view the moves as reallocation toward AI — not a distress signal — and are pricing little downside for Meta’s stock. Meta’s guidance for $115B–$135B AI capex in 2026 underpins that view. Key upcoming catalysts: Meta’s April 29 earnings call and the May 20 layoff execution — markets interpret the sequence as bullish for META.OQ.