IEA Warns Global Diesel Shortages and High Prices Will Persist Into 2027

Global diesel prices remain elevated amid a structural supply deficit expected to persist into 2027. New York Harbor distillate crack spreads trade above $100 per barrel, while European ICE gasoil crack spreads stand at $78.77 per barrel. Refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East triggered combined diesel export losses of 1.3 million barrels per day in September, pushing wholesale prices to records near $220 per barrel. The IEA projects 2026 global oil demand will contract by 2.6 million barrels per day, with diesel driving 25% of the slump as high fuel costs spur demand destruction.