Poland’s NBP Expected to Hold Rates Steady with Hawkish Tone, Says ING

ING economists expect Poland’s National Bank (NBP) to keep its main reference rate at 5.75% at the upcoming meeting and signal a hawkish tone. With inflation and core inflation running above target, ING sees the bank maintaining its pause that began in October 2023 rather than easing policy. A hawkish hold could help anchor expectations and provide support for the Polish zloty against pressure from global risk aversion and a strong US dollar, while keeping borrowing costs steady for households and businesses. Markets will watch the decision and accompanying communication for clues on the timing of any future cuts; the forecast implies limited near-term easing and potential stabilization or appreciation of PLN versus USD.